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Senate winner·closes in 29mo

Will the Republican party win the Senate in 2028?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
0
1,928 lifetime
Open interest
1,160
+48 over 7d
Spread
7¢
1,005 × 1,005 at the touch
24h range
–
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
50%

A YES contract costs 50¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
50%

costs 57¢

YES bid / ask
43¢ / 50¢
NO bid / ask
50¢ / 57¢
Recent buying99% YES · 1% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢70¢80¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask56.1k77¢
  • ask2,02275¢
  • ask41.1k74¢
  • ask28.5k71¢
  • ask23.1k68¢
  • ask10.8k66¢
  • ask15965¢
  • ask1,00550¢
spread7¢mid 47¢
  • bid1,00543¢
  • bid84540¢
  • bid14627¢
  • bid12.8k26¢
  • bid28.9k23¢
  • bid41.7k20¢
  • bid2,12919¢
  • bid111.5k17¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Republican party has won control of the Senate in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. Senate. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2029.

Settlement sources
opened
May 15 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
CONTROLS-2028-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 11 trades, 99% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago50¢48bought yes
28d ago46¢419bought yes
1mo ago46¢209bought yes
1mo ago46¢209bought yes
1mo ago45¢4bought no
1mo ago46¢7bought no
1mo ago48¢1bought yes
1mo ago46¢1bought no
2mo ago48¢40bought yes
2mo ago46¢2bought no
2mo ago48¢200bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.