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EU exit·closes in 40mo

Will a country leave the EU by 2030?

YES means By 2030

24h volume
0
31.7k lifetime
Open interest
16.5k
+0 over 24h
Spread
4¢
447 × 5.78 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
16%

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
84%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 89¢
Recent buying63% YES · 37% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 20, 4:17 AMSep 20, 10:54 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask26338¢
  • ask2637¢
  • ask6834¢
  • ask1630¢
  • ask9419¢
  • ask1,00018¢
  • ask30816¢
  • ask5.7815¢
spread4¢mid 13¢
  • bid44711¢
  • bid1,03010¢
  • bid109¢
  • bid226¢
  • bid3006¢
  • bid235¢
  • bid525¢
  • bid5515¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any country formally leaves the EU by Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 21, 2024 · 1:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
EUEXIT-30
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in EU loses a member before 2030?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 63% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago16¢1.11bought yes
3d ago11¢1.11bought no
3d ago11¢200bought no
6d ago12¢0.78bought no
6d ago18¢0.78bought yes
10d ago11¢107bought no
12d ago17¢9.96bought yes
12d ago17¢22bought yes
12d ago18¢75bought yes
17d ago11¢9.96bought no
17d ago19¢9.96bought yes
18d ago18¢26bought yes
19d ago10¢10bought no
28d ago10¢2.77bought no
28d ago18¢3.35bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.