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EU expansion·closes in 40mo

Will any country join the EU by 2030?

YES means Any country

24h volume
0
8,391 lifetime
Open interest
2,558
−20 over 30d
Spread
7¢
10 × 1,005 at the touch
24h range
–
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
76%

A YES contract costs 76¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
24%

costs 31¢

YES bid / ask
69¢ / 76¢
NO bid / ask
24¢ / 31¢
Recent buying42% YES · 58% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢75¢100¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4,44499¢
  • ask4798¢
  • ask10097¢
  • ask2,17895¢
  • ask51194¢
  • ask1,00576¢
spread7¢mid 73¢
  • bid1069¢
  • bid1,00068¢
  • bid8.4137¢
  • bid4830¢
  • bid51127¢
  • bid1,21926¢
  • bid50023¢
  • bid6003¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Any country joins the EU by Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 21, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
EUEXPANSION-30
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in EU has a new member before 2030?.

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 42% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago76¢38bought yes
4d ago75¢4.87bought yes
4d ago75¢2bought yes
6d ago68¢45bought no
16d ago94¢3bought yes
17d ago37¢8bought no
17d ago38¢5bought no
19d ago76¢2bought yes
19d ago76¢3bought yes
25d ago68¢2bought no
30d ago75¢0.13bought yes
30d ago75¢3.87bought yes
1mo ago72¢1bought no
1mo ago72¢1bought no
2mo ago67¢0.13bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.