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EV market share·closes in 44mo

EV market share in 2030?

YES means Above 10%

24h volume
0
2,127 lifetime
Open interest
540
+0 over 7d
Spread
4¢
5 × 5.04 at the touch
24h range
–
28 recent trades
Chance of YES
82%

A YES contract costs 87¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
18%

costs 17¢

YES bid / ask
83¢ / 87¢
NO bid / ask
13¢ / 17¢
Recent buying27% YES · 73% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
75¢80¢85¢90¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask86598¢
  • ask1097¢
  • ask1096¢
  • ask1095¢
  • ask1094¢
  • ask50089¢
  • ask9488¢
  • ask5.0487¢
spread4¢mid 85¢
  • bid583¢
  • bid2982¢
  • bid50081¢
  • bid89736¢
  • bid631¢
  • bid11115¢
  • bid49911¢
  • bid1,00010¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the share of electric light-duty vehicles sold is above 10% in Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 12, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC
closes
May 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 31, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
10
ticker
EVSHARE-30JAN-10
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 28 trades, 27% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago82¢2.18bought no
4d ago83¢7.9bought no
4d ago83¢2bought no
4d ago84¢5bought no
8d ago83¢1bought no
10d ago88¢1bought yes
11d ago83¢1bought no
13d ago88¢1bought yes
16d ago87¢17bought yes
24d ago83¢0.1bought no
1mo ago84¢22bought no
1mo ago82¢29bought no
1mo ago84¢5bought no
1mo ago84¢1.13bought no
1mo ago87¢1.13bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.