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Florida Governor·closed · YES

Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida

YES means Byron Donalds

David Jolly at 22¢ has been the more active side this week (13.8k contracts vs 1k) without moving the price. The vote-share market has Donalds at 50%+ at 71¢.
Our read · Sep 20, 2026 · 3 PM ET
24h volume
160.3k
27.30M lifetime
Open interest
11.76M
Spread
100¢
0 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
99%+1

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
1%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
Recent buying53% YES · 47% NO

This market is closed and resolved YES. Prices shown are the last ones traded.

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Empty book.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Florida pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 26, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 4 · 2:12 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
GOVPARTYFL-26-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 53% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago99¢36bought no
1d ago99¢157bought no
1d ago99¢1.41bought no
1d ago99¢961bought no
1d ago99¢78bought no
1d ago99¢77bought no
1d ago100¢23bought yes
1d ago99¢13bought no
1d ago100¢8.52bought no
1d ago99¢0.48bought no
1d ago100¢6bought yes
1d ago100¢460bought yes
1d ago100¢2,000bought yes
1d ago100¢13.0kbought yes
1d ago100¢271bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.