LA Gov·closes in 26mo

Will the Republican party win the governorship in Louisiana

YES means Republican

24h volume: 0; 6,496 lifetime
Open interest: 854; +0 over 30d
Spread: 3¢; 0.15 × 1.59 at the touch
24h range: –; 4 recent trades

Chance of YES

87%

A YES contract costs 91¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

13%

costs 12¢

YES bid / ask

88¢ / 91¢

NO bid / ask

9¢ / 12¢

Recent buying41% YES · 59% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask1,000100¢
ask758100¢
ask25599¢
ask195¢
ask20092¢
ask10091¢
ask1.5991¢

spread3¢mid 89¢

bid0.1588¢
bid69487¢
bid20083¢
bid2433¢
bid5,0003¢
bid130¢
bid1,0000¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Louisiana pursuant to the 2027 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

Louisiana Secretary of State

opened: Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Nov 12, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Nov 13, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: GOVPARTYLA-27-R

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Democratic10¢

Recent trades

Over the last 4 trades, 41% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
17d ago	87¢	1	bought no
26d ago	88¢	2	bought no
26d ago	87¢	0.18	bought no
27d ago	91¢	2.18	bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.