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2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Josh Shapiro

24h volume
0
10.3k lifetime
Open interest
3,448
−108 over 30d
Spread
4¢
35 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
73¢ – 81¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
75%

A YES contract costs 81¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
25%

costs 23¢

YES bid / ask
77¢ / 81¢
NO bid / ask
19¢ / 23¢
24h low 73¢24h high 81¢
Recent buying43% YES · 57% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5097¢
  • ask594¢
  • ask10594¢
  • ask6.5590¢
  • ask10689¢
  • ask1,00085¢
  • ask3484¢
  • ask1,00081¢
spread4¢mid 79¢
  • bid3577¢
  • bid2076¢
  • bid2473¢
  • bid1,00072¢
  • bid23739¢
  • bid4738¢
  • bid1,08237¢
  • bid2333¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Josh Shapiro announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-JSHA
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 43% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago76¢12bought no
3d ago75¢82bought no
3d ago79¢24bought no
4d ago81¢406bought yes
4d ago80¢8.08bought yes
5d ago79¢0.49bought yes
5d ago81¢5.6bought yes
6d ago79¢0.12bought yes
6d ago78¢6bought no
12d ago73¢0.35bought no
14d ago78¢11bought yes
14d ago79¢17bought yes
14d ago78¢16bought yes
17d ago73¢7.04bought no
19d ago73¢126bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.