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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means J.D. Vance

24h volume
0
34.5k lifetime
Open interest
14.8k
+0 over 24h
Spread
2¢
63 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
87%

A YES contract costs 86¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
13%

costs 16¢

YES bid / ask
84¢ / 86¢
NO bid / ask
14¢ / 16¢
Recent buying97% YES · 3% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
80¢90¢volSep 20, 4:06 PMSep 20, 9:39 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask56598¢
  • ask4898¢
  • ask2.5296¢
  • ask1196¢
  • ask1,21692¢
  • ask9992¢
  • ask1,99487¢
  • ask1,00086¢
spread2¢mid 85¢
  • bid6384¢
  • bid1,10283¢
  • bid1,00082¢
  • bid1,01381¢
  • bid3,60680¢
  • bid2979¢
  • bid1,72078¢
  • bid14977¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If J.D. Vance announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-JVAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 97% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago87¢5.69bought yes
3d ago84¢0.17bought no
3d ago84¢5.73bought no
5d ago86¢5.75bought yes
5d ago83¢1bought no
6d ago86¢2.3bought yes
10d ago83¢1.46bought no
10d ago85¢1,000bought yes
13d ago82¢1bought no
14d ago82¢27bought no
15d ago84¢3bought yes
16d ago81¢129bought no
16d ago81¢6.13bought no
18d ago85¢1,000bought yes
18d ago84¢2,121bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.