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Abraham Accord Saudi Arabia·closes in 3mo

Will Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Lebanon

24h volume
45
67.1k lifetime
Open interest
29.7k
Spread
6¢
5 × 17 at the touch
24h range
3¢ – 3¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%−3

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 97¢
24h low 3¢24h high 3¢
Recent buying87% YES · 13% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5026¢
  • ask8525¢
  • ask4024¢
  • ask1423¢
  • ask19415¢
  • ask7.288¢
  • ask518¢
  • ask178¢
spread5¢mid 5¢
  • bid53¢
  • bid213¢
  • bid222¢
  • bid1032¢
  • bid5512¢
  • bid4,3342¢
  • bid1,0072¢
  • bid10.2k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Israel and Lebanon normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 10, 2025 · 9:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01-LEB
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 87% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago3¢25bought no
4h ago3¢20bought no
3d ago6¢50bought no
3d ago7¢8.68bought no
3d ago7¢8.68bought no
6d ago8¢1bought yes
6d ago8¢1bought yes
6d ago8¢1bought yes
6d ago8¢1bought yes
6d ago8¢1bought yes
6d ago8¢1bought yes
6d ago8¢1bought yes
6d ago8¢1bought yes
6d ago8¢1bought yes
9d ago4¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.