Tesla SpaceX merger·closes in 16mo

Will SpaceX announce acquisition of any major U.S. telecom business before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Yes

24h volume
0
12.3k lifetime
Open interest
2,576
Spread
5 × 84 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
45%

A YES contract costs 44¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
55%

costs 62¢

YES bid / ask
38¢ / 44¢
NO bid / ask
56¢ / 62¢
Recent buying56% YES · 44% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask2194¢
  • ask2291¢
  • ask1,83590¢
  • ask0.3475¢
  • ask50045¢
  • ask8444¢
spreadmid 41¢
  • bid538¢
  • bid50037¢
  • bid430¢
  • bid33514¢
  • bid1311¢
  • bid1,131
  • bid330
  • bid120
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If SpaceX announces an agreement to acquire any major U.S. telecom business before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this market "any major U.S. telecom business" is defined as any of the following companies: AT&T Inc., Verizon Communications Inc., T-Mobile US Inc., EchoStar Corp, Comcast Corp, Charter Communications Inc., Lumen Technologies Inc., and US Cellular Corp. The announcement must involve a definitive, binding agreement accompanied by public announcement. Letters of intent, memoranda of understanding, or agreements in principle do not qualify. The deal does not need to close as long as an agreement has been announced. Regulatory blocking or later cancellation does not affect resolution. Cross-border transactions qualify if a definitive agreement is announced. Internal reorganizations, joint ventures, or minority investments do not qualify unless they involve controlling ownership transfer. The acquisition can be structured as asset purchases, stock purchases, tender offers, SPAC combinations, or takeover agreements. Transactions involving subsidiaries qualify, but those limited solely to assets or divisions must represent the majority of operations or equity control.

opened
Jun 23 · 2:30 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXACQANNOUNCESPACEX-28JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will SpaceX acquire any major U.S. telecom business before 2028?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 56% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago45¢21bought yes
3d ago38¢2.18bought no
3d ago44¢1.34bought yes
3d ago44¢0.84bought yes
5d ago44¢4.16bought yes
6d ago37¢6.13bought no
6d ago38¢0.73bought no
6d ago38¢4.27bought no
6d ago45¢4.27bought yes
9d ago45¢13bought yes
15d ago45¢16bought yes
15d ago46¢16bought yes
16d ago45¢0.2bought yes
17d ago38¢17bought no
17d ago41¢84bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.