Will Bola Tinubu leave office next in this set?
YES means Bola Tinubu
- 24h volume
- 0
- 2,757 lifetime
- Open interest
- 2,209
- +0 over 24h
- Spread
- 1¢
- 505 × 111 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 9 recent trades
A YES contract costs 27¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 74¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the President of Nigeria is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes.
An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price.
- opened
- Feb 6, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2035 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 1, 2035 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXAFRICALEADEROUT-35-BT
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Recent trades
Over the last 9 trades, 80% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16d ago | 24¢ | 2 | bought no |
| 17d ago | 24¢ | 2 | bought no |
| 19d ago | 15¢ | 508 | bought yes |
| 19d ago | 15¢ | 92 | bought yes |
| 19d ago | 14¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 19d ago | 14¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 37¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 37¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 37¢ | 147 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.