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Next African leader out·closes in 101mo

Will William Ruto leave office next in this set?

YES means William Ruto

24h volume
0
2,060 lifetime
Open interest
1,406
Spread
5¢
2 × 931 at the touch
24h range
–
8 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 97¢
Recent buying89% YES · 11% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,38851¢
  • ask1,04750¢
  • ask32245¢
  • ask1344¢
  • ask5518¢
  • ask50011¢
  • ask6710¢
  • ask9318¢
spread5¢mid 6¢
  • bid23¢
  • bid5003¢
  • bid1051¢
  • bid1501¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the President of Kenya is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes.

An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 6, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2035 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2035 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAFRICALEADEROUT-35-WR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 89¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 8 trades, 89% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9d ago4¢10bought no
9d ago4¢4bought no
16d ago11¢14bought yes
19d ago18¢95bought yes
19d ago10¢5bought yes
21d ago11¢1bought yes
21d ago11¢1bought yes
1mo ago9¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.