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Agencies eliminated·closes in 28mo

Will EPA be eliminated?

YES means EPA

24h volume
0
8,806 lifetime
Open interest
2,861
+0 over 7d
Spread
0¢
626 × 250 at the touch
24h range
–
19 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 90¢
Recent buying76% YES · 24% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,70453¢
  • ask1,59152¢
  • ask75040¢
  • ask97039¢
  • ask5438¢
  • ask4220¢
  • ask37510¢
  • ask25010¢
spread0¢mid 10¢
  • bid62610¢
  • bid25710¢
  • bid129¢
  • bid469¢
  • bid1138¢
  • bid568¢
  • bid137¢
  • bid867¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If EPA is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Eliminating all funding also satisfies the Payout Criterion, as does merging its authorities with another agency, though merely altering its authorities without changing its name, or other alterations is not sufficient to be encompassed. Clarification (3/3/26): While the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 reflects the reorganization of USAID functions into the State Department, it continues to appropriate funds for the USAID Office of Inspector General, which remains operational under that title. Because funding has not fully ended for all entities operating under the USAID name, this market will not resolve to Yes at this time.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 6, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAGENCYELIM-29-EPA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 19 trades, 76% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago12¢7.84bought yes
12d ago12¢63bought yes
24d ago10¢1.03bought yes
1mo ago10¢10bought no
1mo ago10¢2.3bought no
1mo ago10¢6.95bought no
2mo ago10¢4bought yes
2mo ago10¢4bought yes
2mo ago10¢11bought no
2mo ago10¢9.5bought no
2mo ago9¢41bought no
2mo ago10¢1bought yes
2mo ago10¢26bought yes
2mo ago10¢19bought yes
2mo ago10¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.