Will USAID be eliminated?
YES means USAID
- 24h volume
- 71
- 153.5k lifetime
- Open interest
- 29.1k
- −7.41 over 7d
- Spread
- 1¢
- 500 × 3 at the touch
- 24h range
- 19¢ – 25¢
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 79¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask20033¢
- ask25032¢
- ask50031¢
- ask78028¢
- ask67826¢
- ask64625¢
- ask10023¢
- ask322¢
- bid50021¢
- bid8254¢
- bid354¢
- bid2011¢
- bid2,0000¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If USAID is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Eliminating all funding also satisfies the Payout Criterion, as does merging its authorities with another agency, though merely altering its authorities without changing its name, or other alterations is not sufficient to be encompassed. Clarification (3/3/26): While the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 reflects the reorganization of USAID functions into the State Department, it continues to appropriate funds for the USAID Office of Inspector General, which remains operational under that title. Because funding has not fully ended for all entities operating under the USAID name, this market will not resolve to Yes at this time.
- opened
- Feb 6, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXAGENCYELIM-29-USAID
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 63% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22h ago | 22¢ | 71 | bought no |
| 1d ago | 22¢ | 5 | bought no |
| 1d ago | 22¢ | 17 | bought no |
| 3d ago | 19¢ | 3 | bought no |
| 4d ago | 21¢ | 1.39 | bought no |
| 4d ago | 19¢ | 59 | bought no |
| 4d ago | 21¢ | 5 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 25¢ | 3.8 | bought yes |
| 8d ago | 23¢ | 338 | bought no |
| 9d ago | 23¢ | 62 | bought no |
| 16d ago | 26¢ | 22 | bought yes |
| 20d ago | 23¢ | 18 | bought no |
| 21d ago | 26¢ | 499 | bought yes |
| 21d ago | 26¢ | 1.02 | bought yes |
| 21d ago | 26¢ | 1 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.