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Agencies eliminated·closes in 28mo

Will USAID be eliminated?

YES means USAID

24h volume
71
153.5k lifetime
Open interest
29.1k
−5,704 over 30d
Spread
1¢
500 × 3 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask
21¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 79¢
Recent buying63% YES · 37% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
15¢20¢25¢30¢35¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20033¢
  • ask25032¢
  • ask50031¢
  • ask78028¢
  • ask67826¢
  • ask64625¢
  • ask10023¢
  • ask322¢
spread1¢mid 21¢
  • bid50021¢
  • bid5055¢
  • bid7224¢
  • bid484¢
  • bid2011¢
  • bid2,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If USAID is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Eliminating all funding also satisfies the Payout Criterion, as does merging its authorities with another agency, though merely altering its authorities without changing its name, or other alterations is not sufficient to be encompassed. Clarification (3/3/26): While the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 reflects the reorganization of USAID functions into the State Department, it continues to appropriate funds for the USAID Office of Inspector General, which remains operational under that title. Because funding has not fully ended for all entities operating under the USAID name, this market will not resolve to Yes at this time.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 6, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAGENCYELIM-29-USAID
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 63% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago22¢71bought no
2d ago22¢5bought no
2d ago22¢17bought no
3d ago19¢3bought no
4d ago21¢1.39bought no
4d ago19¢59bought no
4d ago21¢5bought no
5d ago25¢3.8bought yes
8d ago23¢338bought no
9d ago23¢62bought no
16d ago26¢22bought yes
20d ago23¢18bought no
21d ago26¢499bought yes
21d ago26¢1.02bought yes
22d ago26¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.