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Will any company achieve AGI before [date]?·closes in 28mo

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2029?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2029

24h volume
42
3,788 lifetime
Open interest
2,343
+1,056 over 30d
Spread
7¢
23 × 4,434 at the touch
24h range
69¢ – 87¢
37 recent trades
Chance of YES
72%−4

A YES contract costs 84¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
28%

costs 23¢

YES bid / ask
77¢ / 84¢
NO bid / ask
16¢ / 23¢
24h low 69¢24h high 87¢
Recent buying70% YES · 30% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask78099¢
  • ask2,04698¢
  • ask30095¢
  • ask21094¢
  • ask5090¢
  • ask4,43484¢
spread7¢mid 81¢
  • bid2377¢
  • bid20076¢
  • bid1964¢
  • bid2563¢
  • bid3050¢
  • bid2045¢
  • bid10038¢
  • bid535¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 3 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAGICO-COMP-28Q4
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 37 trades, 70% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
14h ago72¢9bought yes
15h ago73¢14bought yes
18h ago74¢14bought yes
18h ago74¢5bought yes
2d ago76¢1bought yes
2d ago76¢1bought yes
2d ago77¢1bought yes
4d ago82¢60bought no
4d ago82¢1.43bought no
5d ago79¢3bought no
11d ago86¢3.57bought no
13d ago87¢2bought no
13d ago87¢23bought yes
13d ago86¢2bought yes
13d ago86¢9bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.