Mandatory independent AI safety evaluations or audits·closes in 3mo

Will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
200
1,545 lifetime
Open interest
1,145
Spread
10 × 14 at the touch
24h range
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%+4

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
91%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
/ 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 93¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If federal legislation requiring independent AI safety evaluations or audits has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

A qualifying federal law must require a safety evaluation or audit of AI models, systems, or safety practices by an evaluator independent of the entity being reviewed. Government evaluators and independent outside organizations qualify. The review must substantively assess safety risks, testing, safeguards, or risk management; disclosure paperwork or self-attestation alone does not qualify. The law may cover a defined class of models or entities and may delegate technical standards to an agency. Self-assessments, voluntary programs, studies, and reviews limited to privacy, fairness, or transparency without a safety component do not qualify. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the FRONTIER Act (H.R. 9925).

opened
Sep 17 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAISAFETYAUDIT-26SEP-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
26m ago10¢10bought no
26m ago185bought no
2h ago11¢5bought no
1d ago200bought no
3d ago15¢100bought no
4d ago19¢200bought no
4d ago19¢50bought no
4d ago19¢100bought no
4d ago19¢200bought no
4d ago19¢200bought no
4d ago19¢200bought no
4d ago19¢95bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.