Mandatory independent AI safety evaluations or audits·closes in 16mo

Will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2028

24h volume
410
1,439 lifetime
Open interest
1,034
Spread
12¢
10 × 3 at the touch
24h range
20¢ – 55¢
15 recent trades
Chance of YES
36%24

A YES contract costs 40¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
64%

costs 72¢

YES bid / ask
28¢ / 40¢
NO bid / ask
60¢ / 72¢
24h low 20¢24h high 55¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If federal legislation requiring independent AI safety evaluations or audits has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

A qualifying federal law must require a safety evaluation or audit of AI models, systems, or safety practices by an evaluator independent of the entity being reviewed. Government evaluators and independent outside organizations qualify. The review must substantively assess safety risks, testing, safeguards, or risk management; disclosure paperwork or self-attestation alone does not qualify. The law may cover a defined class of models or entities and may delegate technical standards to an agency. Self-assessments, voluntary programs, studies, and reviews limited to privacy, fairness, or transparency without a safety component do not qualify. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the FRONTIER Act (H.R. 9925).

opened
Sep 17 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAISAFETYAUDIT-26SEP-28JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 15 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago36¢5bought no
5h ago43¢10bought no
5h ago42¢190bought no
8h ago45¢100bought no
15h ago20¢5bought yes
16h ago55¢100bought no
3d ago61¢30bought no
3d ago61¢44bought no
3d ago60¢100bought no
3d ago61¢200bought no
3d ago61¢200bought no
3d ago62¢5bought no
3d ago61¢50bought no
3d ago61¢200bought no
3d ago61¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.