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Alberta referendum succeeds·closes in 37mo

Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada before the next general election?

YES means Before the next general election

24h volume
62
99.2k lifetime
Open interest
34.8k
−50 over 24h
Spread
2¢
5 × 15 at the touch
24h range
13¢ – 20¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
13%+1

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 86¢

YES bid / ask
14¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 86¢
24h low 13¢24h high 20¢
Recent buying14% YES · 86% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢volSep 20, 4:19 AMSep 21, 12:04 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20027¢
  • ask5025¢
  • ask6324¢
  • ask2,40022¢
  • ask10021¢
  • ask9420¢
  • ask50017¢
  • ask1516¢
spread2¢mid 15¢
  • bid514¢
  • bid2,97713¢
  • bid35012¢
  • bid5039¢
  • bid18¢
  • bid976¢
  • bid555¢
  • bid2,0045¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alberta votes to secede from Canada before the date of the next Canadian federal general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 15, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 15, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXALBERTAREFYES-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 14% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12h ago13¢50bought no
12h ago20¢2.65bought yes
12h ago15¢4bought yes
12h ago15¢5bought yes
6d ago12¢2.74bought no
6d ago13¢5bought no
6d ago13¢15bought no
6d ago18¢5.25bought yes
7d ago12¢28bought no
7d ago13¢5bought no
7d ago13¢5bought no
8d ago15¢13bought yes
9d ago12¢20bought no
9d ago12¢2.46bought no
10d ago15¢63bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.