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25th Amendment·closes in 28mo

Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?

YES means Before 2029

24h volume
2,313
186.7k lifetime
Open interest
72.2k
Spread
2¢
310 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%−5

A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 17¢
NO bid / ask
83¢ / 85¢
Recent buying2% YES · 98% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask80030¢
  • ask1,18729¢
  • ask28028¢
  • ask18227¢
  • ask8826¢
  • ask10020¢
  • ask1,00018¢
  • ask517¢
spread2¢mid 16¢
  • bid31015¢
  • bid1,45214¢
  • bid7,37413¢
  • bid6612¢
  • bid8211¢
  • bid11510¢
  • bid499¢
  • bid309¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If, as part of Section IV of the 25th Amendment, the Vice President (and a majority of the Cabinet or some other body designated by Congress) transmit to Congress a written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 26, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAMEND25-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 2% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago15¢35bought no
7h ago15¢1bought no
8h ago17¢1.31bought yes
10h ago16¢100bought no
10h ago17¢90bought no
10h ago17¢1,000bought no
10h ago17¢29bought no
10h ago18¢16bought no
11h ago18¢6.34bought no
11h ago18¢0.01bought no
12h ago20¢5bought yes
12h ago21¢18bought yes
12h ago18¢6.35bought no
13h ago20¢1,000bought no
13h ago20¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.