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America party 2028·closes in 24mo

Will a party founded by Elon Musk contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

YES means a party founded by Elon Musk

24h volume
0
2,976 lifetime
Open interest
2,194
Spread
6¢
100 × 501 at the touch
24h range
–
7 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
8¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 92¢
Recent buying15% YES · 85% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask1,00099¢
  • ask88898¢
  • ask2,45788¢
  • ask43887¢
  • ask50114¢
spread6¢mid 11¢
  • bid1008¢
  • bid5007¢
  • bid15¢
  • bid142¢
  • bid1402¢
  • bid2002¢
  • bid451¢
  • bid5001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

A party "contests" an election if they have at least one candidate on the official ballot under the party name, participate in a formal coalition on the ballot, or have officially endorsed candidates with clear party affiliation. The party does NOT contest if they only endorse other parties' candidates, announce a boycott, fail to meet ballot access requirements, or only challenge results after voting without having participated. For multi-round elections, appearing on any round's ballot counts. For federal systems, contesting in any state/province counts for the federal election. If the election is postponed but occurs within one year, the contract remains valid. If cancelled or not held within one year, the market resolves to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 27, 2025 · 8:45 PM UTC
closes
Sep 8, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Sep 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAMERICAPARTY2028-28SEP01
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?.

Recent trades

Over the last 7 trades, 15% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
29d ago14¢11bought yes
1mo ago7¢10bought no
2mo ago11¢50bought no
2mo ago11¢50bought no
2mo ago10¢84bought no
2mo ago11¢50bought no
2mo ago22¢31bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.