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KXAOCRUN·closes in 6mo

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027?

YES means Before Apr 1, 2027

24h volume
0
2,116 lifetime
Open interest
1,916
+0 over 24h
Spread
4¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
27 recent trades
Chance of YES
29%

A YES contract costs 28¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
71%

costs 76¢

YES bid / ask
24¢ / 28¢
NO bid / ask
72¢ / 76¢
Recent buying96% YES · 4% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢25¢30¢35¢volSep 20, 8:35 AMSep 20, 10:35 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask72575¢
  • ask43174¢
  • ask7463¢
  • ask4262¢
  • ask5061¢
  • ask560¢
  • ask4558¢
  • ask20028¢
spread4¢mid 26¢
  • bid20024¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has announced that she will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Apr 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 7 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 1, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAOCRUN-28-27APR01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 27 trades, 96% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago29¢28bought yes
1d ago27¢5bought yes
5d ago27¢200bought yes
5d ago25¢200bought yes
5d ago27¢200bought yes
5d ago25¢200bought yes
5d ago21¢5bought no
5d ago20¢34bought no
11d ago30¢200bought yes
11d ago28¢200bought yes
11d ago26¢200bought yes
11d ago23¢200bought yes
11d ago24¢15bought yes
22d ago23¢16bought yes
22d ago23¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.