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AOC announces presidential run by...?·closes in 3mo

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
0
5,514 lifetime
Open interest
2,934
+2,896 over 90d
Spread
3¢
200 × 210 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 89¢
Recent buying32% YES · 68% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢volJul 8Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2894¢
  • ask55071¢
  • ask1,56969¢
  • ask50044¢
  • ask12243¢
  • ask342¢
  • ask20020¢
  • ask21014¢
spread3¢mid 13¢
  • bid20011¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has announced that she will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 7 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAOCRUN-28-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 32% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago10¢200bought no
5d ago13¢190bought no
5d ago13¢190bought no
5d ago13¢66bought no
5d ago10¢5bought no
11d ago12¢194bought no
12d ago14¢34bought yes
19d ago8¢12bought no
21d ago6¢5bought yes
21d ago6¢15bought yes
21d ago7¢5bought no
21d ago7¢15bought no
21d ago6¢200bought no
22d ago14¢6.19bought yes
22d ago12¢39bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.