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AOC announces presidential run by...?·closes in 9mo

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jul 1, 2027

24h volume
0
1,030 lifetime
Open interest
918
+35 over 7d
Spread
8¢
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
14 recent trades
Chance of YES
56%

A YES contract costs 55¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
44%

costs 53¢

YES bid / ask
47¢ / 55¢
NO bid / ask
45¢ / 53¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volSep 15Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1199¢
  • ask21296¢
  • ask4492¢
  • ask13291¢
  • ask26681¢
  • ask21680¢
  • ask36179¢
  • ask20055¢
spread8¢mid 51¢
  • bid547¢
  • bid20046¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has announced that she will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jul 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 7 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Jul 1, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAOCRUN-28-27JUL01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 14 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago56¢35bought yes
13d ago75¢0.65bought yes
13d ago48¢200bought yes
19d ago45¢4.27bought yes
22d ago44¢1.27bought yes
22d ago44¢9.66bought yes
1mo ago44¢44bought yes
1mo ago44¢22bought yes
1mo ago87¢1.13bought yes
1mo ago43¢5bought yes
1mo ago39¢100bought yes
1mo ago40¢142bought yes
2mo ago30¢200bought yes
2mo ago29¢100bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.