AOC announces presidential run by...?·closes in 13mo

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?

YES means Before Oct 1, 2027

24h volume: 0; 1,767 lifetime
Open interest: 1,042
Spread: 7¢; 5 × 5 at the touch
24h range: –

Chance of YES

62%

A YES contract costs 70¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

38%

costs 37¢

YES bid / ask

63¢ / 70¢

NO bid / ask

30¢ / 37¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask7.8598¢
ask1597¢
ask60691¢
ask1490¢
ask18289¢
ask4588¢
ask20071¢
ask570¢

spread7¢mid 67¢

bid563¢
bid20062¢
bid4932¢
bid20831¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has announced that she will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources

opened: Jul 7 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes: Oct 1, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXAOCRUN-28-27OCT01

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.