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AOC Senate·closes in 19mo

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
0
30.4k lifetime
Open interest
8,930
−146 over 7d
Spread
5¢
1,969 × 500 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
47%

A YES contract costs 47¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
53%

costs 58¢

YES bid / ask
42¢ / 47¢
NO bid / ask
53¢ / 58¢
Recent buying63% YES · 37% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7878¢
  • ask20576¢
  • ask1,31675¢
  • ask1,06374¢
  • ask4773¢
  • ask20066¢
  • ask20055¢
  • ask50047¢
spread5¢mid 44¢
  • bid1,96942¢
  • bid50040¢
  • bid50038¢
  • bid2,50037¢
  • bid5035¢
  • bid2,37617¢
  • bid20016¢
  • bid466¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez runs for Senate in 2028 before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Note: FEC filings alone do not resolve this market to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 18, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAOCSENATE-28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 63% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago47¢146bought yes
3d ago42¢3.34bought no
8d ago45¢0.18bought yes
8d ago45¢2bought yes
9d ago42¢193bought no
9d ago47¢8.19bought yes
9d ago46¢20bought yes
9d ago42¢8.37bought no
13d ago42¢1bought no
16d ago42¢8.37bought no
16d ago42¢50bought yes
16d ago42¢248bought yes
16d ago42¢1bought yes
17d ago41¢74bought no
19d ago42¢2.44bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.