Apple v OpenAI trade-secrets case·closes in 28mo

Will Apple achieve the superior outcome in its OpenAI case?

YES means Before 2029

24h volume
0
11 lifetime
Open interest
8
+0 over 24h
Spread
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
3 recent trades
Chance of YES
60%

A YES contract costs 60¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
40%

costs 48¢

YES bid / ask
52¢ / 60¢
NO bid / ask
40¢ / 48¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

45¢50¢55¢60¢65¢volSep 20, 9:06 PMSep 21, 12:35 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10099¢
  • ask7098¢
  • ask1.6278¢
  • ask20060¢
spreadmid 56¢
  • bid552¢
  • bid20051¢
  • bid33
  • bid100
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Apple Inc. has achieved the superior outcome in the trial-level resolution of Apple v. OpenAI, No. 5:26-cv-07078 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

For this market, the case is Apple Inc. v. Chang Liu, Tang Yew Tan, OpenAI Foundation f/k/a OpenAI, Inc., OpenAI Group PBC, and io Products, LLC f/k/a io Products, Inc., U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California No. 5:26-cv-07078-EJD. Apple Inc. achieves the superior outcome through the following exclusive hierarchy: Net Monetary Recovery (Highest Priority): Apple Inc. achieves the superior outcome if it receives a larger net monetary award than all opposing parties combined (after offsetting any awards against Apple Inc.). Attorney's fees and costs are excluded. Substantive Legal Victory (Second Priority): If no net monetary advantage exists, Apple Inc. achieves the superior outcome if it prevails on claims seeking the largest dollar amount of relief in its original pleadings, or if relief amounts are equal or unclear, on the greater number of primary causes of action. Case Termination Advantage (Third Priority): If the case terminates without substantive judgment, Apple Inc. achieves the superior outcome if opposing parties voluntarily dismiss all claims against Apple Inc. with prejudice. All other termination scenarios result in no superior outcome for any party. Settlements: Apple Inc. achieves the superior outcome if the parties settle with a disclosed net payment to Apple Inc. Apple Inc. does not achieve the superior outcome if the parties settle with a disclosed net payment from Apple Inc. to opposing parties. No party achieves a superior outcome if the parties settle with mutual releases and no disclosed payment direction, or if settlement terms are sealed and no Source Agency reports payment direction within seven days of the settlement announcement. Key exclusions: Applies only to trial-level resolution and specifically excludes all appeals processes. Procedural victories alone do not constitute superior outcomes. A temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, or expedited-discovery order is not a final trial-level resolution. A denial, partial ruling, or dismissal that leaves claims pending on a motion to dismiss is not final; a final dismissal terminating the entire trial-level action is evaluated under the hierarchy above.

opened
Sep 2 · 3:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAPPLEOPENAICASE-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Apple win its case against OpenAI?.

Recent trades

Over the last 3 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9d ago60¢1.62bought yes
14d ago60¢1.62bought yes
19d ago50¢8bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.