Will Netanyahu be arrested?·closes in 1mo

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Nov 1, 2026?

YES means Before Nov 1, 2026

24h volume: 48; 17.2k lifetime
Open interest: 4,381
Spread: 2¢; 101 × 441 at the touch
24h range: –

Chance of YES

4%+2

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

96%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask

4¢ / 6¢

NO bid / ask

94¢ / 96¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask7827¢
ask7826¢
ask324¢
ask123¢
ask1022¢
ask19814¢
ask2,20012¢
ask4416¢

spread2¢mid 5¢

bid1014¢
bid3023¢
bid5422¢
bid2,9041¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this Contract, "arrested" means: Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant Being formally booked or processed following detention The following scenarios would satisfy the Payout Criterion: Benjamin Netanyahu is handcuffed and taken to a police station Benjamin Netanyahu surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested in any country and this is reported by a Source Agency Benjamin Netanyahu is detained at an airport or border crossing and formally arrested The following scenarios would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: An arrest warrant being issued but not executed Benjamin Netanyahu being briefly detained but not arrested Benjamin Netanyahu being questioned or interviewed without arrest Benjamin Netanyahu being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring without physical custody Benjamin Netanyahu being named in an indictment without arrest Benjamin Netanyahu being arrested after Nov 1, 2026 Protective custody that is not an arrest

Settlement sources

opened: Jul 20 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes: Nov 1 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26NOV01

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.