Will Netanyahu be arrested?·closes in 10d

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Oct 1, 2026?

YES means Before Oct 1, 2026

24h volume
0
64.7k lifetime
Open interest
28.7k
+27.8k over 90d
Spread
0 × 650 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 48¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 100¢
24h low 24h high 48¢
Recent buying60% YES · 40% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢5¢10¢volJul 21Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask130¢
  • ask1723¢
  • ask821¢
  • ask2,200
  • ask254
  • ask201
  • ask200
  • ask650
spreadmid
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    For purposes of this Contract, "arrested" means: Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant Being formally booked or processed following detention The following scenarios would satisfy the Payout Criterion: Benjamin Netanyahu is handcuffed and taken to a police station Benjamin Netanyahu surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested in any country and this is reported by a Source Agency Benjamin Netanyahu is detained at an airport or border crossing and formally arrested The following scenarios would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: An arrest warrant being issued but not executed Benjamin Netanyahu being briefly detained but not arrested Benjamin Netanyahu being questioned or interviewed without arrest Benjamin Netanyahu being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring without physical custody Benjamin Netanyahu being named in an indictment without arrest Benjamin Netanyahu being arrested after Oct 1, 2026 Protective custody that is not an arrest

    opened
    Jul 20 · 7:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26OCT01
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 60% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    1d ago146bought yes
    1d ago12bought yes
    2d ago250bought yes
    2d ago10bought yes
    2d ago206bought yes
    2d ago158bought yes
    4d ago32bought yes
    5d ago101bought yes
    5d ago40bought yes
    5d ago93bought yes
    5d ago17bought yes
    5d ago47bought yes
    5d ago7bought yes
    5d ago31bought yes
    5d ago199bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.