Will Netanyahu be arrested?·closes in 3mo

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
0
30.1k lifetime
Open interest
11.7k
+0 over 24h
Spread
50 × 100 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 95¢
Recent buying31% YES · 69% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 20, 8:01 AMSep 20, 11:05 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask12441¢
  • ask9.430¢
  • ask11726¢
  • ask3015¢
  • ask1,00014¢
  • ask20012¢
  • ask300
  • ask100
spreadmid
  • bid50
  • bid270
  • bid1,754
  • bid1,500
  • bid3,550
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this Contract, "arrested" means: Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant Being formally booked or processed following detention The following scenarios would satisfy the Payout Criterion: Benjamin Netanyahu is handcuffed and taken to a police station Benjamin Netanyahu surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested in any country and this is reported by a Source Agency Benjamin Netanyahu is detained at an airport or border crossing and formally arrested The following scenarios would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: An arrest warrant being issued but not executed Benjamin Netanyahu being briefly detained but not arrested Benjamin Netanyahu being questioned or interviewed without arrest Benjamin Netanyahu being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring without physical custody Benjamin Netanyahu being named in an indictment without arrest Benjamin Netanyahu being arrested after Jan 1, 2027 Protective custody that is not an arrest

opened
Jul 20 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 31% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago0.01bought no
1d ago3.33bought yes
1d ago1bought yes
2d ago4.51bought no
4d ago0.29bought no
6d ago1bought no
7d ago52bought no
7d ago59bought yes
8d ago50bought no
8d ago126bought no
10d ago100bought yes
10d ago10¢3.95bought yes
11d ago38bought no
11d ago5.19bought no
12d ago12bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.