Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Jan 1, 2027?
YES means Before Jan 1, 2027
- 24h volume
- 0
- 30.1k lifetime
- Open interest
- 11.7k
- +0 over 24h
- Spread
- 3¢
- 50 × 100 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 95¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask12441¢
- ask9.430¢
- ask11726¢
- ask3015¢
- ask1,00014¢
- ask20012¢
- ask3009¢
- ask1008¢
- bid505¢
- bid2704¢
- bid1,7543¢
- bid1,5002¢
- bid3,5501¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
For purposes of this Contract, "arrested" means: Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant Being formally booked or processed following detention The following scenarios would satisfy the Payout Criterion: Benjamin Netanyahu is handcuffed and taken to a police station Benjamin Netanyahu surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested in any country and this is reported by a Source Agency Benjamin Netanyahu is detained at an airport or border crossing and formally arrested The following scenarios would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: An arrest warrant being issued but not executed Benjamin Netanyahu being briefly detained but not arrested Benjamin Netanyahu being questioned or interviewed without arrest Benjamin Netanyahu being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring without physical custody Benjamin Netanyahu being named in an indictment without arrest Benjamin Netanyahu being arrested after Jan 1, 2027 Protective custody that is not an arrest
- opened
- Jul 20 · 7:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-27JAN01
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 31% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | 5¢ | 0.01 | bought no |
| 1d ago | 8¢ | 3.33 | bought yes |
| 1d ago | 8¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 5¢ | 4.51 | bought no |
| 4d ago | 5¢ | 0.29 | bought no |
| 6d ago | 5¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 7d ago | 5¢ | 52 | bought no |
| 7d ago | 8¢ | 59 | bought yes |
| 8d ago | 7¢ | 50 | bought no |
| 8d ago | 4¢ | 126 | bought no |
| 10d ago | 9¢ | 100 | bought yes |
| 10d ago | 10¢ | 3.95 | bought yes |
| 11d ago | 4¢ | 38 | bought no |
| 11d ago | 4¢ | 5.19 | bought no |
| 12d ago | 4¢ | 12 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.