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Next Australian PM·closes in 37mo

Will Pauline Hanson become Prime Minister of Australia following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives?

YES means Pauline Hanson

24h volume
0
364 lifetime
Open interest
364
Spread
7¢
15 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
20%

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
80%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 87¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask50177¢
  • ask20076¢
  • ask20020¢
spread7¢mid 16¢
  • bid1513¢
  • bid20012¢
  • bid3072¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Pauline Hanson becomes Prime Minister of Australia as a result of government formation following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives and meets all constitutional requirements before Sep 23, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Sep 23, 2029, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 9 · 8:31 PM UTC
closes
Sep 23, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Sep 23, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAUSTPM-28SEP23-PHAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 52¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 11 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10d ago20¢50bought yes
14d ago22¢187bought yes
14d ago21¢15bought yes
14d ago21¢16bought yes
14d ago20¢15bought yes
1mo ago19¢5bought yes
1mo ago20¢43bought yes
1mo ago19¢5bought yes
2mo ago19¢5bought yes
2mo ago20¢19bought yes
2mo ago19¢4.98bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.