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Australia Senate·closes in 32mo

Who will win the next Australian Senate election?

YES means Australian Labor Party

24h volume
0
169 lifetime
Open interest
5
−20 over 90d
Spread
9¢
3 × 200 at the touch
24h range
69¢ – 74¢
2 recent trades
Chance of YES
69%

A YES contract costs 75¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
31%

costs 34¢

YES bid / ask
66¢ / 75¢
NO bid / ask
25¢ / 34¢
24h low 69¢24h high 74¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢70¢80¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask1,00097¢
  • ask40197¢
  • ask397¢
  • ask379¢
  • ask20075¢
spread9¢mid 71¢
  • bid366¢
  • bid20065¢
  • bid2005¢
  • bid1,4695¢
  • bid1,0004¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the winner of the next Australian Senate election is Australian Labor Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
May 20, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
May 20, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAUSTRALIASENATE-28-ALP
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 89¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2mo ago69¢15bought no
2mo ago70¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.