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Measles during Trump admin·closes in 28mo

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?

YES means At least 2000

24h volume
0
27.2k lifetime
Open interest
10.1k
Spread
1¢
272 × 572 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
96%

A YES contract costs 97¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
4%

costs 4¢

YES bid / ask
96¢ / 97¢
NO bid / ask
3¢ / 4¢
Recent buying66% YES · 34% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7,58099¢
  • ask3,52398¢
  • ask57297¢
spread1¢mid 97¢
  • bid27296¢
  • bid12595¢
  • bid56392¢
  • bid6091¢
  • bid21090¢
  • bid8564¢
  • bid80063¢
  • bid1,36452¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 2000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 4, 2025 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
2000
ticker
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-2000
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 66% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago96¢72bought no
9d ago96¢5bought no
9d ago96¢6.51bought no
17d ago97¢185bought yes
19d ago96¢19bought yes
20d ago96¢5bought yes
20d ago96¢15bought yes
20d ago96¢5bought yes
20d ago96¢5bought yes
20d ago95¢74bought no
20d ago95¢10bought no
20d ago95¢10bought no
20d ago95¢46bought no
20d ago96¢5bought no
21d ago97¢109bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.