galdor.xyz
Admin
Measles during Trump admin·closes in 28mo

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?

YES means At least 5000

24h volume
0
43.3k lifetime
Open interest
9,973
+0 over 7d
Spread
2¢
155 × 5.38 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
34%

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
66%

costs 67¢

YES bid / ask
33¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 67¢
Recent buying88% YES · 12% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢40¢50¢60¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3867¢
  • ask1065¢
  • ask5063¢
  • ask560¢
  • ask2.5858¢
  • ask7855¢
  • ask50036¢
  • ask5.3835¢
spread2¢mid 34¢
  • bid15533¢
  • bid40032¢
  • bid30030¢
  • bid30029¢
  • bid50028¢
  • bid30527¢
  • bid1526¢
  • bid18125¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 5000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 4, 2025 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
5000
ticker
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-5000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 88% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago34¢2.73bought no
9d ago35¢2.65bought no
11d ago37¢18bought yes
12d ago37¢2.58bought yes
13d ago36¢500bought yes
13d ago35¢1bought yes
13d ago35¢200bought yes
18d ago31¢14bought no
19d ago32¢1bought no
20d ago36¢8.36bought yes
20d ago37¢28bought yes
20d ago37¢1bought yes
20d ago36¢22bought yes
20d ago35¢4bought yes
21d ago31¢41bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.