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Measles during Trump admin·closes in 28mo

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?

YES means At least 5000

24h volume
0
43.3k lifetime
Open interest
9,973
Spread
2¢
155 × 5.38 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
34%

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
66%

costs 67¢

YES bid / ask
33¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 67¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3867¢
  • ask1065¢
  • ask5063¢
  • ask560¢
  • ask2.5858¢
  • ask7855¢
  • ask50036¢
  • ask5.3835¢
spread2¢mid 34¢
  • bid15533¢
  • bid40032¢
  • bid30030¢
  • bid30029¢
  • bid50028¢
  • bid30527¢
  • bid1526¢
  • bid18125¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 5000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 4, 2025 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
5000
ticker
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-5000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.