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BANTRABNS·closes in 28mo

Will US Supreme Court rule ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams?

YES means Before 2029

24h volume
0
42.1k lifetime
Open interest
12.4k
−75 over 7d
Spread
3¢
962 × 3,001 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
23%

A YES contract costs 24¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
77%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask
21¢ / 24¢
NO bid / ask
76¢ / 79¢
Recent buying54% YES · 46% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
15¢20¢25¢30¢volSep 15Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2072¢
  • ask15070¢
  • ask2,04369¢
  • ask6868¢
  • ask2.2363¢
  • ask50060¢
  • ask20027¢
  • ask3,00124¢
spread3¢mid 22¢
  • bid96221¢
  • bid1,75920¢
  • bid30019¢
  • bid50518¢
  • bid20017¢
  • bid1,45015¢
  • bid1.3411¢
  • bid4009¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If US Supreme Court rules ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 17, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBANTRANS-26
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will US Supreme Court ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 54% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago23¢10bought yes
4d ago21¢78bought no
4d ago21¢5bought no
4d ago21¢10bought no
4d ago21¢5bought no
4d ago24¢8bought yes
4d ago24¢5bought yes
4d ago21¢35bought yes
4d ago21¢50bought yes
5d ago20¢16bought no
6d ago21¢166bought yes
8d ago21¢2.23bought yes
9d ago21¢370bought yes
14d ago20¢2bought no
14d ago20¢40bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.