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Blue Origin SpaceX moon·closes in 40mo

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

YES means Before 2030

24h volume
611
94.2k lifetime
Open interest
34.2k
Spread
5¢
14 × 505 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
65%+4

A YES contract costs 66¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
35%

costs 39¢

YES bid / ask
61¢ / 66¢
NO bid / ask
34¢ / 39¢
Recent buying76% YES · 24% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask52083¢
  • ask7282¢
  • ask3281¢
  • ask1.5279¢
  • ask3175¢
  • ask18674¢
  • ask69667¢
  • ask50566¢
spread5¢mid 64¢
  • bid1461¢
  • bid2060¢
  • bid1659¢
  • bid54158¢
  • bid5757¢
  • bid5056¢
  • bid10455¢
  • bid5054¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Blue Origin lands an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship as well as before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 21, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBLUESPACEX-30
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 76% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago65¢1.13bought yes
4h ago64¢1.52bought yes
5h ago59¢45bought no
5h ago60¢14bought no
5h ago64¢83bought yes
5h ago61¢3bought yes
5h ago60¢1.31bought yes
5h ago60¢5bought yes
5h ago62¢17bought yes
5h ago60¢1.52bought yes
5h ago61¢1.2bought yes
5h ago61¢16bought yes
5h ago62¢1.26bought yes
5h ago62¢0.08bought yes
5h ago62¢4.31bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.