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Next Bond actor·closes in 40mo

Will Cillian Murphy be the next James Bond?

YES means Cillian Murphy

24h volume
0
23.1k lifetime
Open interest
10.9k
+0 over 7d
Spread
1¢
0 × 2,063 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 17

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask611¢
  • ask20010¢
  • ask1,1899¢
  • ask68¢
  • ask55¢
  • ask1144¢
  • ask4,9202¢
  • ask2,0631¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Cillian Murphy is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jun 26, 2025 · 5:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXBOND-30-CIL
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in its event.

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.