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Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?·closes in 3mo

Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
0
5,769 lifetime
Open interest
3,202
Spread
7¢
5 × 1 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
17%

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
83%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 91¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20047¢
  • ask34846¢
  • ask5145¢
  • ask4842¢
  • ask341¢
  • ask40018¢
  • ask1217¢
  • ask116¢
spread7¢mid 13¢
  • bid59¢
  • bid2009¢
  • bid1006¢
  • bid4055¢
  • bid5502¢
  • bid451¢
  • bid631¢
  • bid1,6151¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies. Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory qualify. Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements contingent on circumstances, opposition party statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations without specific commitment, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions (unless specified) do NOT qualify. Retraction of previously announced commitments also does not satisfy the criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 27 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBOUGAINVILLEIND-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.