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Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?·closes in 16mo

Will Papua New Guinea the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2028

24h volume
0
9,376 lifetime
Open interest
5,551
−1 over 30d
Spread
5¢
200 × 204 at the touch
24h range
–
14 recent trades
Chance of YES
55%

A YES contract costs 58¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
45%

costs 47¢

YES bid / ask
53¢ / 58¢
NO bid / ask
42¢ / 47¢
Recent buying2% YES · 98% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,56591¢
  • ask2,48290¢
  • ask55090¢
  • ask1889¢
  • ask50073¢
  • ask58772¢
  • ask20062¢
  • ask20458¢
spread5¢mid 56¢
  • bid20053¢
  • bid5507¢
  • bid9517¢
  • bid1005¢
  • bid5002¢
  • bid501¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies. Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory qualify. Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements contingent on circumstances, opposition party statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations without specific commitment, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions (unless specified) do NOT qualify. Retraction of previously announced commitments also does not satisfy the criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 27 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBOUGAINVILLEIND-28JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 14 trades, 2% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago55¢1bought no
1mo ago54¢1bought no
1mo ago52¢15bought yes
1mo ago53¢15bought yes
1mo ago69¢500bought no
1mo ago70¢5bought no
1mo ago69¢1bought no
1mo ago70¢500bought no
1mo ago71¢500bought no
2mo ago72¢18bought no
2mo ago72¢0.12bought no
2mo ago74¢0.12bought no
2mo ago78¢0.12bought yes
2mo ago72¢21bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.