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Will Bitcoin hit 200k in 2026? ·closes in 2mo

Will Bitcoin be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET?

YES means Above $200000

24h volume
45.0k
14.34M lifetime
Open interest
5.04M
+189.1k over 7d
Spread
2¢
0 × 184.9k at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 2¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 100¢
24h low 1¢24h high 2¢
Recent buying46% YES · 54% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volOct 29Nov 5

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8,2489¢
  • ask2,4988¢
  • ask3,2087¢
  • ask15.7k6¢
  • ask1,2655¢
  • ask2164¢
  • ask32.6k3¢
  • ask184.9k2¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $200000 starting 2025-10-10 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Oct 10, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
    floor
    200000
    ticker
    KXBTC2026200-27JAN01-200000
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 2¢).

    This is the only market in Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 46% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    24m ago2¢25bought yes
    1h ago2¢100bought yes
    2h ago2¢47bought yes
    2h ago2¢10bought yes
    2h ago2¢234bought yes
    2h ago1¢17bought yes
    2h ago1¢423bought yes
    2h ago1¢19bought no
    2h ago1¢163bought no
    2h ago1¢525bought no
    3h ago1¢102bought no
    3h ago1¢119bought no
    3h ago1¢37bought no
    3h ago1¢117bought no
    3h ago1¢281bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.