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Will Bitcoin hit 200k in 2026? ·closes in 3mo

Will Bitcoin be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET?

YES means Above $200000

24h volume
78.0k
9.17M lifetime
Open interest
3.74M
Spread
1¢
3,454 × 65.4k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 97¢
Recent buying58% YES · 42% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10911¢
  • ask21610¢
  • ask3,7839¢
  • ask178¢
  • ask107¢
  • ask3336¢
  • ask32.2k5¢
  • ask65.4k4¢
spread1¢mid 4¢
  • bid3,4543¢
  • bid323.4k2¢
  • bid308.2k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $200000 starting 2025-10-10 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 10, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
floor
200000
ticker
KXBTC2026200-27JAN01-200000
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 3¢).

This is the only market in Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 58% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13s ago3¢240bought no
8m ago4¢1bought yes
9m ago4¢234bought yes
10m ago4¢23bought yes
15m ago3¢1.02bought no
27m ago4¢385bought yes
31m ago3¢19bought no
36m ago3¢10bought no
36m ago3¢32bought no
58m ago4¢2.1bought yes
1h ago4¢3bought yes
1h ago4¢192bought yes
1h ago4¢5bought yes
1h ago4¢192bought yes
1h ago3¢23bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.