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Will BTC fall below 70k before hitting 100k?·closes in 2mo

Will BTC hit $70,000 before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026?

YES means 70,000 first

24h volume
7,060
73.8k lifetime
Open interest
48.7k
Spread
1¢
281 × 1 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
20%−33

A YES contract costs 23¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
80%

costs 78¢

YES bid / ask
22¢ / 23¢
NO bid / ask
77¢ / 78¢
Recent buying48% YES · 52% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If BTC reaches $70,000 before reaching $100,000 between Issuance and 11:59 PM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market tracks whether the cryptocurrency price reaches the first threshold before the second threshold. "Reaches" means the price touches or falls below $70,000 (the lower threshold) OR touches or rises above $100,000 (the upper threshold). The first threshold reached determines the outcome. Price is measured using the CF Real-Time Index, taking a simple average over any 60-second period. If $70,000 is reached first, the market resolves to Yes. If $100,000 is reached first, the market resolves to No. If neither threshold is reached by the deadline, the market resolves to No. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 24 · 4:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC
ticker
KXBTC70VS100-BTC-26DEC31
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 48% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago21¢20bought no
1h ago22¢3bought no
1h ago23¢25bought no
1h ago20¢8.81bought no
1h ago23¢4bought no
1h ago23¢1bought no
1h ago21¢1bought no
1h ago32¢5bought yes
1h ago14¢3bought no
1h ago13¢18bought no
1h ago14¢1.65bought no
1h ago15¢3.52bought no
1h ago20¢19bought no
1h ago19¢8bought no
1h ago20¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.