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KXBTCMAX100·closes in 1mo

Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by November 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?

YES means Before November 2026

24h volume
352
189.3k lifetime
Open interest
124.8k
Spread
1¢
28 × 750 at the touch
24h range
9¢ – 11¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 11¢
NO bid / ask
89¢ / 90¢
24h low 9¢24h high 11¢
Recent buying80% YES · 20% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting Jul 21, 2026 and before Nov 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

opened
Jul 22 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 1 · 4:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
floor
100000
ticker
KXBTCMAX100-26-OCT
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 80% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
36m ago10¢50bought no
36m ago9¢164bought no
36m ago10¢28bought no
36m ago10¢0.91bought no
36m ago10¢1.17bought no
8h ago11¢0.07bought yes
8h ago11¢22bought yes
8h ago11¢0.01bought yes
8h ago11¢0.02bought yes
8h ago11¢0.88bought yes
9h ago11¢2.08bought yes
9h ago11¢0.06bought yes
9h ago11¢75bought yes
9h ago11¢8.3bought yes
1d ago10¢125bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.