Bitcoin monthly one touch·closes in 26d

Will BTC trimmed mean be above $85000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026?

YES means Above $85,000.00

24h volume
9,062
26.1k lifetime
Open interest
18.8k
Spread
1¢
5.15 × 3,592 at the touch
24h range
33¢ – 61¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
57%+31

A YES contract costs 58¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
43%

costs 43¢

YES bid / ask
57¢ / 58¢
NO bid / ask
42¢ / 43¢
24h low 33¢24h high 61¢
Recent buying66% YES · 34% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask869¢
  • ask867¢
  • ask865¢
  • ask14363¢
  • ask40061¢
  • ask3,29360¢
  • ask4359¢
  • ask3,59258¢
spread1¢mid 57¢
  • bid5.1557¢
  • bid2,22056¢
  • bid3,50055¢
  • bid63154¢
  • bid20853¢
  • bid24552¢
  • bid37451¢
  • bid10850¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026 is ever above $ 85000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.

At each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF BRTI price for BTC. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 1 · 4:10 AM UTC
closes
Dec 1 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 1 · 4:59 AM UTC
floor
85000
ticker
KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26NOV30-8500000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 66% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
15m ago57¢0.49bought no
2h ago56¢1.35bought no
2h ago56¢3.65bought no
3h ago58¢17bought no
3h ago59¢20bought no
3h ago59¢14bought no
3h ago60¢16bought yes
5h ago58¢11bought no
5h ago58¢1.14bought no
5h ago58¢18bought no
5h ago58¢209bought no
5h ago59¢56bought no
5h ago60¢10bought yes
5h ago59¢2.62bought yes
6h ago60¢2bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.