BTC one touch minimum·closes in 10d

Will BTC trimmed mean be below $60000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?

YES means Below $60,000.00

24h volume
94
68.5k lifetime
Open interest
53.4k
+52.9k over 30d
Spread
4,115 × 2,376 at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 2¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
24h low 24h high
Recent buying58% YES · 42% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 1Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask11.7k99¢
  • ask14.5k92¢
  • ask10.5k38¢
  • ask50
  • ask6,428
  • ask2,376
spreadmid
  • bid4,115
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026 is ever below $60000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.

At each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF BRTI price for BTC. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is below the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 1 · 4:10 AM UTC
closes
Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC
cap
60000
ticker
KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26SEP30-6000000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 58% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
23h ago94bought yes
1d ago402bought yes
2d ago561bought yes
2d ago100bought no
2d ago1,251bought yes
3d ago0.62bought yes
4d ago229bought no
4d ago356bought no
4d ago644bought no
4d ago163bought no
4d ago223bought no
4d ago200bought yes
4d ago214bought yes
5d ago42bought yes
5d ago22bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.