BTC one touch minimum·closes in 10d

Will BTC trimmed mean be below $72500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?

YES means Below $72,500.00

24h volume
10.1k
106.6k lifetime
Open interest
33.2k
+32.8k over 90d
Spread
3,218 × 854 at the touch
24h range
6¢ – 66¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
91%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 94¢
24h low 24h high 66¢
Recent buying42% YES · 58% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

25¢50¢volSep 2Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3,50018¢
  • ask80017¢
  • ask10014¢
  • ask5013¢
  • ask3,00012¢
  • ask53210¢
  • ask120
  • ask917
spreadmid
  • bid3,218
  • bid207
  • bid708
  • bid10.0k
  • bid10.1k
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026 is ever below $72500.00, then the market resolves to Yes.

At each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF BRTI price for BTC. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is below the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 1 · 4:10 AM UTC
closes
Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC
cap
72500
ticker
KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26SEP30-7250000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 42% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
33m ago0.1bought yes
33m ago32bought yes
45m ago100bought yes
2h ago116bought yes
2h ago0.45bought yes
2h ago1.2bought yes
2h ago1,277bought no
2h ago100bought no
2h ago21bought yes
3h ago9.63bought no
3h ago0.4bought no
3h ago0.41bought no
3h ago10bought yes
4h ago17bought yes
5h ago1.62bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.