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How low will Bitcoin fall this year?·closes in 3mo

Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?

YES means Below $40,000.00

24h volume
4,526
1.29M lifetime
Open interest
533.4k
+251.3k over 90d
Spread
1¢
6,955 × 136 at the touch
24h range
6¢ – 42¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 93¢
24h low 6¢24h high 42¢
Recent buying60% YES · 40% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1515¢
  • ask3,00014¢
  • ask1,00013¢
  • ask8612¢
  • ask2,04611¢
  • ask5,00010¢
  • ask5,2619¢
  • ask1368¢
spread1¢mid 7¢
  • bid6,9557¢
  • bid2,3876¢
  • bid1,9315¢
  • bid3,3624¢
  • bid3,4023¢
  • bid6,0302¢
  • bid12.2k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $40000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 5 · 8:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
cap
40000
ticker
KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-40000.00
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 60% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
15m ago8¢0.91bought yes
4h ago7¢254bought no
5h ago8¢1,722bought no
5h ago8¢344bought no
5h ago8¢4.17bought no
6h ago8¢702bought yes
6h ago8¢1.02bought yes
6h ago8¢94bought yes
6h ago8¢5bought yes
6h ago8¢0.61bought yes
6h ago8¢30bought yes
6h ago8¢47bought yes
7h ago8¢667bought yes
7h ago8¢298bought yes
7h ago8¢0.85bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.