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How low will Bitcoin fall this year?·closes in 3mo

Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?

YES means Below $45,000.00

24h volume
308
897.6k lifetime
Open interest
375.8k
Spread
1¢
1,612 × 1,231 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 91¢
Recent buying59% YES · 41% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask12017¢
  • ask3,00016¢
  • ask10515¢
  • ask5,05614¢
  • ask32.5k13¢
  • ask4,65712¢
  • ask45611¢
  • ask1,23110¢
spread1¢mid 9¢
  • bid1,6129¢
  • bid4,2498¢
  • bid2,3227¢
  • bid1,8006¢
  • bid2,5305¢
  • bid3,5654¢
  • bid5,6663¢
  • bid6,0012¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $45000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 5 · 8:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
cap
45000
ticker
KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-45000.00
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 59% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12m ago10¢1bought yes
3h ago9¢0.01bought no
3h ago9¢42bought no
9h ago9¢9.53bought no
13h ago9¢30bought no
22h ago9¢100bought no
23h ago9¢0.56bought no
23h ago9¢124bought no
1d ago10¢20bought yes
1d ago9¢0.63bought no
1d ago9¢0.57bought no
1d ago11¢40bought yes
1d ago9¢100bought yes
1d ago9¢30bought yes
1d ago9¢500bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.