galdor.xyz
Admin
How low will Bitcoin fall this year?·closes in 3mo

Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?

YES means Below $50,000.00

24h volume
7,206
1.42M lifetime
Open interest
618.2k
+50.7k over 7d
Spread
1¢
46 × 2,623 at the touch
24h range
11¢ – 13¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
13%+1

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 13¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 88¢
24h low 11¢24h high 13¢
Recent buying54% YES · 46% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask15522¢
  • ask4,00020¢
  • ask5,17319¢
  • ask7,15018¢
  • ask4,00017¢
  • ask1,39315¢
  • ask5,65114¢
  • ask2,62313¢
spread1¢mid 13¢
  • bid4612¢
  • bid4,72811¢
  • bid1,03210¢
  • bid2299¢
  • bid2,0648¢
  • bid3,7727¢
  • bid2,9436¢
  • bid5,6205¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $50000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 5 · 8:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
cap
50000
ticker
KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-50000.00
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 54% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago13¢0.71bought yes
5h ago13¢14bought yes
6h ago13¢22bought yes
8h ago12¢1,127bought no
9h ago13¢9.56bought yes
9h ago12¢1.2bought yes
9h ago12¢932bought yes
9h ago12¢35bought yes
9h ago12¢45bought yes
9h ago12¢4,825bought yes
10h ago12¢0.75bought yes
10h ago12¢32bought yes
10h ago12¢0.75bought yes
10h ago12¢3.07bought yes
10h ago12¢42bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.